BAGHDAD, Sept 29 – The United States is preparing to complete the withdrawal of its remaining military forces from Iraq, bringing an end to more than two decades of American military involvement in a country that became one of the most consequential battlefields of the post-9/11 era.
US forces are expected to leave their last bases in Iraq by Wednesday, under a withdrawal arrangement agreed between Washington and Baghdad in 2024 during the administration of President Joe Biden. The final stage is now being carried out under President Donald Trump as the United States remains engaged in a wider war with Iran.
The departure is being welcomed by Iran and armed groups aligned with Tehran, which view the end of the US military presence as a significant setback for Washington and an opportunity to expand their political and security influence inside Iraq. At the same time, Iraqi security officials and analysts have warned that the withdrawal could create gaps that other armed groups, including Islamic State, could attempt to exploit.
The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 to remove Saddam Hussein’s government. American forces remained in the country through years of insurgency before withdrawing in 2011. They returned less than three years later after Islamic State seized large areas of Iraq and Syria, joining Iraqi forces in a campaign that eventually dismantled the militant group’s territorial control.
More than 4,500 Americans were killed during the two decades of US military involvement in Iraq, according to the Reuters report on the withdrawal. The conflict became the deadliest US war of the 21st century in terms of American military deaths when compared with the parallel Afghanistan war.
The final American deaths in Iraq have also come during the latest conflict involving Iran. Reuters reported that seven of the 18 US service members listed as killed in this year’s war with Iran died in Iraq. The last was an Army sergeant who was killed in July while taking part in the controlled detonation of a drone at a base near Erbil.
Iran and its allies see a strategic opening
Iraq has spent years balancing close relationships with both Washington and Tehran, despite the rivalry between the two countries. That relationship has frequently made Iraq a point of confrontation, with Iran backed armed groups attacking US positions and Washington responding with military strikes.
The US killing of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in a strike near Baghdad airport in 2020 was one of the most serious examples of that confrontation. Soleimani was a senior figure in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and had extensive relationships with armed groups across the region.
With American forces now leaving, Iraqi security analyst Jasim al Bahadli told Reuters that Iran would benefit strategically because the US military presence had served as an important counterweight to Tehran’s influence.
Bahadli said Iran aligned militia groups were likely to present the withdrawal as a victory and could attempt to use the momentum to increase their influence over security and political decisions in Iraq.
The withdrawal has already been celebrated by members of the armed groups that have opposed the American presence.
Abu Mojtaba al Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella organization representing Iran backed armed factions, described the departure to Reuters as a major victory for what he called the Iraqi resistance.
He said Sept. 30 would mark what the group regards as the end of a period of foreign military occupation, arguing that Iraqi sovereignty should be protected by Iraqis rather than foreign forces.
Iranian officials have also publicly welcomed the withdrawal. Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of the National Security Commission of Iran’s parliament, said Monday that lasting security would prevail in Iraq after American forces leave the country and the wider region.
Moqaddam told Iran’s parliamentary news service that Tehran welcomed the departure and would support it. He also referred to resistance groups that have continued confronting US forces.
Washington, meanwhile, has accused Iran backed militias in Iraq of participating in the wider regional conflict by carrying out attacks against neighboring countries under Tehran’s direction. The Iraqi government has said it is working to limit the influence of armed factions and reinforce the authority of the state.
The end of the US military mission therefore does not mean the end of the political or security relationship between Washington and Baghdad. Instead, the departure changes the balance of military power inside a country that has long attempted to maintain ties with both sides.
Concerns over Iraq’s security readiness
For many Iraqis, the departure of foreign troops represents the restoration of national sovereignty. But some Iraqi officials and community leaders remain concerned about whether Iraqi forces are prepared to assume complete responsibility for security without the same level of American military assistance.
Abdulrahman al Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader from Fallujah, told Reuters that Iraqis broadly want full sovereignty but questioned whether the withdrawal was taking place at the right moment.
Zobaie said there was concern that the departure could create a security vacuum if Iraqi forces were not fully prepared to manage the country’s security responsibilities on their own.
Fallujah itself carries deep memories of the US war. The western Iraqi city became one of the main centers of armed resistance to American forces following the 2003 invasion and was the scene of two major battles between US troops and insurgents in 2004.
The American military later returned to Iraq as part of the international campaign against Islamic State. From 2014 to 2017, US backed forces helped Iraqi security units reclaim territory captured by the militant organization.
The campaign ultimately destroyed Islamic State’s territorial control in Iraq, but Iraqi and Kurdish officials say the group has not disappeared.
Some security officials in both Iraq’s federal government and the semi autonomous Kurdistan Region have warned that the withdrawal could reduce access to American intelligence, logistical support and surveillance capabilities that have helped Iraqi forces track militant networks.
Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani told Reuters that security forces had observed increased movement among Islamic State sleeper cells during the weeks following public announcements about the coalition’s withdrawal.
Barzani said the militants appeared to have gained confidence from the prospect of the international coalition leaving Iraq. His assessment reflects concerns among Iraqi security officials that Islamic State could attempt to rebuild its networks even though it no longer controls large areas of territory.
At its peak, Islamic State controlled roughly one third of Iraq and killed thousands of people. The group also carried out mass killings and filmed executions at locations that included a former US military base.
Iraqi security forces have continued operations against remaining Islamic State networks, but officials say the organization retains the ability to carry out attacks through clandestine cells.
Islamic State threat adds uncertainty to US departure
The possibility of an Islamic State resurgence is one of the central security concerns surrounding the end of the US military presence.
Iraqi security forces said a suspected Islamic State cell was preparing suicide attacks timed to coincide with the US withdrawal, according to four Iraqi security and army officials cited by Reuters.
The officials said the alleged plot demonstrated that Islamic State remains capable of exploiting security weaknesses, despite years of military setbacks and the destruction of its territorial stronghold.
Colonel Khalid al Bayati, a senior security official in the northern city of Kirkuk, told Reuters that the group was seeking to demonstrate that it could still organize and carry out deadly attacks.
The threat is particularly significant in areas where Islamic State previously operated and where security responsibilities are divided between Iraqi federal forces, Kurdish security units and local authorities.
The withdrawal also comes at a sensitive moment for the wider Middle East. Iran and the United States are currently engaged in a major conflict, while armed groups aligned with Tehran remain active across the region. Iraq has repeatedly found itself caught between the two sides, making the departure of American troops more consequential than a simple reduction in foreign military forces.
For Iran and its allies, the withdrawal removes a major American military presence from a neighboring country where Tehran has built extensive political and security relationships over many years. For Baghdad, however, the challenge will be to prevent the resulting change from turning into greater competition between armed factions or creating opportunities for militant groups.
The end of the American military presence therefore closes one chapter of Iraq’s modern history while opening another. Iraqi forces will assume greater responsibility for national security, while the government will have to manage relations with both Washington and Tehran and contain armed groups operating outside the full control of the state.
Whether the withdrawal produces greater Iraqi sovereignty without creating new security vulnerabilities will depend largely on the ability of Baghdad’s institutions and security forces to fill the space left by the departing US led coalition.