JOHANNESBURG, June 26 – South Africa is once again facing heightened tensions over immigration as anti-immigrant groups prepare for demonstrations that have raised concerns about public safety and social stability. Protest organizers have urged undocumented foreign nationals to leave the country before planned rallies next week, a call that has prompted fear among many migrant communities.
Reports from several communities indicate that some foreign African nationals have begun returning to their countries of origin, while others have sought temporary shelter in churches, community centers, and informal camps amid concerns that the protests could escalate into violence. Organizers behind the campaign, including the group March and March, have maintained that their demonstrations are intended to remain peaceful. However, South Africa’s history of xenophobic violence has left many residents uneasy.
The demonstrations come at a time when the country continues to grapple with high unemployment, rising living costs, pressure on public services, and widespread frustration over economic conditions. While protesters argue that undocumented immigration has intensified these problems, researchers and economists say available evidence presents a far more nuanced picture.
Protest Organizers Say Immigration Has Increased Pressure on South Africa
Those supporting the demonstrations argue that undocumented migrants have placed additional strain on jobs, healthcare, education, and public resources.
Speaking to journalists on Wednesday, Musa Hlongwa, president of the civic organization United South Africa, said many South Africans believe they are competing with undocumented foreign nationals for employment opportunities, hospital services, and spaces in public schools. Hlongwa also alleged that some foreign criminal networks are involved in illegal drug trafficking, a claim frequently raised by anti-immigration campaigners during public debates.
These concerns have become increasingly visible as many South Africans continue to experience financial hardship in an economy where unemployment remains among the highest globally.
Public Opinion Reflects Growing Concerns About Immigration
Recent opinion surveys suggest that skepticism toward immigration has become more widespread across South Africa.
Research published by the Human Sciences Research Council found that attitudes toward foreign nationals have become less welcoming than in previous years. According to the survey, only a small proportion of adults said they would welcome all immigrants, while more than four in ten respondents indicated they would prefer not to welcome any foreign nationals, marking a noticeable increase compared with findings from 2021.
A separate Afrobarometer survey reached similar conclusions. The research found that roughly seven in ten respondents viewed immigration as having a negative economic impact, while an overwhelming majority supported reducing the number of refugees entering South Africa or stopping new arrivals altogether.
Meanwhile, polling conducted by Ipsos found that nearly three-quarters of respondents said they had little or no trust in immigrants from other African countries.
Although surveys demonstrate growing public concern, researchers caution that public opinion does not necessarily reflect verified evidence regarding immigration’s actual impact.
Does South Africa Have an Exceptionally Large Migrant Population?
One of the central arguments made by anti-immigration groups is that South Africa is experiencing an overwhelming influx of undocumented migrants.
Official demographic data presents a different perspective.
According to Statistics South Africa’s 2023 population survey, approximately 3.1 million migrants were living in the country, representing around 4.1% of the national population. That proportion is lower than the estimated share recorded a decade earlier.
International comparisons also place South Africa below several developed countries in terms of migrant population. Recent United Nations estimates show considerably higher migrant population shares in countries including Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom.
Some campaigners argue that official statistics fail to capture undocumented migrants accurately. However, Statistics South Africa has said its census methodology is designed to count all residents, regardless of legal status, as accurately as possible.
Anthony Kaziboni, a senior researcher at the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Social Development in Africa, has said that public perception often differs significantly from available demographic evidence. According to Kaziboni, existing data does not support the widespread belief that South Africa is being overwhelmed by migration.
Crime Remains One of the Most Contentious Issues
Crime is another major concern raised by protest supporters, many of whom believe foreign nationals are responsible for a disproportionate share of criminal activity.
However, publicly available evidence remains limited.
South African police do not routinely publish crime statistics based on offenders’ nationalities. Historical figures previously released by the Department of Justice showed that foreign nationals represented only a relatively small percentage of the country’s prison population, with many of those cases involving immigration-related offenses rather than violent crimes.
Loren B. Landau, Professor of Migration and Development at the University of Oxford, has argued that available evidence indicates migrants are generally no more likely, and in many cases less likely, to commit crimes than the broader population. According to Landau, immigration violations account for many legal cases involving undocumented migrants.
Experts caution that while individual crimes committed by foreign nationals receive significant public attention, isolated incidents should not be interpreted as evidence of broader criminal patterns without comprehensive national data.
What Does the Evidence Say About Employment?
Employment opportunities remain at the center of the immigration debate.
Many South Africans believe foreign workers are reducing job opportunities for local citizens, particularly in lower-income sectors where competition for work is already intense.
Economic studies, however, suggest the relationship is more complicated.
A World Bank report published in 2018 concluded that migrants often contribute to economic growth by increasing commercial activity. According to the report, each employed migrant may indirectly support additional employment opportunities for South Africans through spending, entrepreneurship, and business expansion.
Lauren Gilbert, Director of Political Science Data at GeoQuant, has also argued that migrants participate in the economy as consumers and business owners. Income earned by migrants is frequently spent locally on housing, transport, food, and other goods and services, helping generate demand that supports South African businesses.
Economists generally note that migration can both increase labor market competition in certain sectors while also creating economic activity that benefits local communities.
Are Public Services Being Overwhelmed?
Healthcare and education have become central issues in the current demonstrations.
Some protest groups argue that undocumented migrants place excessive pressure on already overstretched hospitals and public schools.
Researchers say the available evidence does not clearly support that conclusion.
Anthony Kaziboni has stated that undocumented migrants often avoid public institutions because registration requirements may expose their immigration status. As a result, many choose not to access government services unless absolutely necessary.
Experts also point to broader structural challenges affecting South Africa’s healthcare and education systems, including years of underinvestment, governance failures, administrative inefficiencies, and corruption.
Kaziboni has argued that assigning primary responsibility to immigrants oversimplifies problems that have developed over decades within the country’s public sector.
Historical and Political Factors Continue to Shape the Debate
South Africa’s immigration debate cannot be understood without considering its history.
During the apartheid era, migrant workers from neighboring countries were widely employed in industries such as mining, where they were often used to maintain low labor costs and weaken organized labor. Many historians believe those policies continue to influence public attitudes toward foreign workers today.
The country’s current economic challenges have also intensified frustration. South Africa continues to face exceptionally high unemployment, persistent poverty, slow economic growth, severe income inequality, and widespread dissatisfaction with public service delivery.
Political analysts have noted that immigration often becomes a prominent campaign issue during election periods. With local government elections expected before November 2026, the subject has once again become a major focus of public debate.
Professor Loren B. Landau has argued that immigrants frequently become convenient targets for broader economic frustrations, despite evidence that many contribute to investment, entrepreneurship, trade, and sectors experiencing labor shortages.
A Complex Issue With No Simple Answers
The renewed anti-immigrant protests highlight the difficult social and economic pressures facing South Africa. Many citizens express genuine concerns about employment opportunities, crime, and access to public services. At the same time, researchers emphasize that many commonly repeated claims about immigration are not fully supported by available data.
Experts broadly agree that South Africa’s long-standing economic challenges stem from multiple factors, including unemployment, inequality, governance failures, corruption, and slow economic growth. While immigration remains an important part of the national conversation, most analysts caution against treating it as the sole cause of problems that have developed over many years.
As demonstrations move forward, authorities face the challenge of protecting public safety while respecting the rights of peaceful protesters and vulnerable migrant communities. The coming days will likely serve as another important test of South Africa’s ability to address public concerns through lawful, evidence-based, and inclusive approaches, while avoiding the violence that has marked similar periods of tension in the past.