BRUSSELS, March 10 – Senior European leadership is warning that the widening conflict could reshape global political and economic dynamics. According to remarks delivered by Antonio Costa, the current war involving the U.S and Israel against Iran may have an unexpected geopolitical outcome. Costa argued that the country gaining the most from the crisis is Russia, largely due to rising energy prices and the diversion of international attention away from the war in Ukraine.
Rising Energy Prices and Strategic Distraction
Speaking to European Union ambassadors in Brussels on Tuesday, Costa, who serves as president of the European Council, delivered a stark assessment of the geopolitical consequences of the escalating conflict. He told diplomats that the turmoil unfolding in the Middle East has created conditions that indirectly strengthen Moscow’s position.
Costa explained that the rapid surge in global oil and gas prices since the beginning of the war is providing Russia with additional financial resources. As one of the world’s largest exporters of energy, Moscow stands to benefit when markets tighten and fuel prices climb.
According to Costa, the impact goes beyond economics. He emphasized that the conflict has also shifted the focus of Western governments and military planners away from Ukraine. For more than four years, Kyiv has been engaged in a difficult war against Russian forces, relying heavily on political, financial, and military support from Western allies.
In his remarks, Costa argued that the new crisis in the Middle East risks drawing military resources, diplomatic attention, and media coverage away from Eastern Europe. This shift, he said, could ultimately benefit Moscow.
“So far, there is only one winner in this war, and that is Russia,” Costa told the assembled ambassadors. His comments underscored growing concern within European institutions that simultaneous global crises could weaken the collective response to Russia’s ongoing campaign in Ukraine.
The Middle East conflict has entered its 11th day and has rapidly expanded beyond its initial flashpoints. Iranian forces have launched retaliatory strikes against American and Israeli targets while also attacking strategic facilities across the Gulf region. These exchanges have heightened fears of a wider regional confrontation.
One of the most significant developments has been the disruption of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage that handles a substantial portion of the world’s oil and natural gas trade. Shipping activity through the strait has slowed dramatically as security risks rise, pushing global fuel prices sharply higher.
Energy analysts note that such disruptions often ripple through global markets, affecting transportation, manufacturing, and household energy costs. For countries heavily dependent on imported energy, the consequences can be severe.
Costa warned that the broader geopolitical consequences may be just as significant as the economic ones. He stressed that the international system built on rules and diplomatic cooperation is under increasing pressure.
In his speech, he urged governments to return to dialogue and negotiations rather than allowing the conflict to spiral further. “Freedom and human rights cannot be achieved through bombs,” Costa said, emphasizing that international law remains the foundation for resolving disputes.
His remarks also hinted at growing tensions within the transatlantic alliance. Costa suggested that some recent actions by Washington have challenged elements of the global rules-based order, though he stopped short of directly criticizing American leadership.
Meanwhile, discussions surrounding the war in Ukraine continue in parallel. Officials in the Kremlin said recently that there remains interest among several parties in continuing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, though no specific date or venue has been confirmed for the next round of talks.
Previous negotiations have taken place in multiple international locations, including Turkiye, Abu Dhabi, and Geneva. Despite these diplomatic efforts, major disagreements remain unresolved.
One of the most contentious issues involves Russia’s demand that Ukraine recognize Moscow’s control over the entire Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly rejected such proposals, insisting that the territory remains part of their sovereign state.
The situation has also drawn attention at the highest political levels. On Monday, Donald Trump held his first phone conversation of the year with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to statements released afterward, the leaders discussed both the Middle East conflict and the continuing war in Ukraine.
Russian officials indicated that the issue of lifting American sanctions on Russian oil exports was not examined in detail during the call. However, they suggested that Washington’s recent policy moves appear aimed at stabilizing global energy markets, which have become increasingly volatile since the Middle East conflict began.
Putin also signaled that Russia remains open to restoring long-term energy cooperation with European buyers if they are willing to resume such arrangements. Before the Ukraine war began in 2022, European countries relied heavily on Russian gas supplies.
At that time, more than 40% of Europe’s natural gas imports came from Russia. By 2025, however, that share had fallen dramatically. Combined deliveries of pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas from Russia accounted for only about 13% of total European Union imports.
At the same time, Washington appears to be reviewing its sanctions policy toward major oil-producing nations. President Trump recently stated that his administration is considering easing some restrictions in order to prevent global fuel prices from rising too sharply.
The United States currently maintains sanctions on the oil sectors of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. Any adjustments to those measures could significantly influence global energy markets.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also announced a temporary 30 day waiver related to Russian oil exports to India. The move is intended to help the country manage supply shortages caused by disruptions in Middle Eastern shipments.
For European leaders like Costa, these developments illustrate how conflicts in one region can quickly reshape the global strategic landscape. With the Middle East crisis still unfolding and the war in Ukraine unresolved, policymakers across Europe are increasingly worried that overlapping conflicts may shift the balance of power in ways that could benefit Russia.