As the U.S. presidential election approaches on November 5, speculation about the future of the U.S.-China tech war intensifies. Whether Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, or Kamala Harris, the Democratic Vice President, claims victory, experts predict an escalation in tensions surrounding technology and trade relations between the two superpowers.
Both candidates present contrasting visions for handling the competition with China. Harris emphasizes a nuanced approach focused on ensuring that the United States, rather than China, leads in the technological race of the 21st century. In contrast, Trump advocates for a more aggressive stance, proposing substantial tariffs as a means to curb Chinese technological advancements and protect American interests.
Former officials from both the Biden and Trump administrations indicate that new measures to limit the import of less sophisticated Chinese chips, smart cars, and other goods into the U.S. are anticipated, irrespective of the election results. Additionally, further restrictions on chipmaking tools and high-demand artificial intelligence (AI) chips destined for China are anticipated. This suggests a unified concern among both candidates to prevent U.S. technology and investments from bolstering China’s military and AI capabilities.
Peter Harrell, a former national security official, notes that the U.S. is opening a new front in its ongoing tech rivalry with China, which focuses on data, software, and connected devices. Recent proposals highlight this shift, including efforts to ban connected cars that utilize Chinese components from U.S. roads. Moreover, legislation has already been enacted requiring the Chinese parent company of the popular short video app TikTok to divest its U.S. operations by next year or face a ban.
Concerns regarding Chinese access to technological updates and data have heightened, with experts warning that the implications could extend far beyond initial actions. Harrell asserts that developments related to TikTok and connected vehicles are merely the beginning of a broader strategy aimed at restricting Chinese influence.
Should Harris win the presidency, her approach is expected to be more coordinated and strategically aligned with U.S. allies, continuing the collaborative efforts seen during the Biden administration. She is likely to prioritize working with international partners to ensure that American technology does not inadvertently enhance China’s military capabilities.
On the other hand, a Trump administration may favor a more rapid and unilateral response to perceived threats from China. Jamieson Greer, who previously served as chief of staff for the U.S. trade representative under Trump, suggests that Trump’s inclination for immediate action could lead to swifter and possibly more aggressive measures against Chinese imports and technology.
Nazak Nikakhtar, who previously served in the Commerce Department under Trump, believes a Trump administration would adopt a far more stringent approach to export controls. She anticipates a significant expansion of the entity list, which restricts exports to specific Chinese companies, possibly extending to their affiliates and business partners. This expansion would mark a continuation of Trump’s earlier actions, such as adding Huawei Technologies to the list due to its violation of sanctions.
Nikakhtar also foresees a potential denial of licenses for shipping U.S. technology to China. Furthermore, she suggests that a Trump administration could impose broader restrictions not only on Chinese chips but also on products incorporating those chips. In her view, Trump would likely be tougher on U.S. allies who fail to align with Washington’s stance toward China, reflecting a philosophy that favors punitive measures over collaborative engagement.
Bill Reinsch, who served as a Commerce official during the Clinton administration, contrasts the two candidates’ approaches: Trump is likely to wield a “sledgehammer,” while Harris would opt for a “scalpel.” Trump’s strategy is characterized by sweeping tariffs, including proposals for 10% to 20% tariffs on all imports, and potentially exceeding 60% on Chinese goods.
In response, Harris has criticized Trump’s tariff strategy as a consumer tax, but the current administration has recognized the necessity for targeted tariffs, especially in the semiconductor sector, where proposed rates could increase from 25% to 50% by 2025.
China, for its part, has reiterated its commitment to protecting its rights and interests amid rising tensions. Last year, Beijing targeted U.S. memory chip manufacturer Micron Technology following a series of U.S. export controls on chips and chipmaking equipment. This reciprocal action underscores the fragility of the current trade relationship and the potential for retaliatory measures from both sides.
Wilbur Ross, the former Commerce Secretary under Trump, emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach. He cautions against a blunt strategy that seeks to completely sever ties with China, arguing that such actions could be dangerous and counterproductive.
In summary, the upcoming U.S. presidential election is set to play a crucial role in shaping the future of the U.S.-China tech war. Regardless of the victor, the battle over technology and trade is expected to intensify, with both candidates advocating for measures to safeguard American interests in the face of growing competition from China. The implications of these policies will likely reverberate across global markets and technological landscapes, shaping the future of international relations for years to come.