Germany’s Election Shock: Conservatives Triumph as Far-Right Gains Historic Support

BERLIN, Feb 23 – Germany’s 2025 federal election has concluded, with the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), emerging victorious. Led by Friedrich Merz, the conservative bloc secured the largest share of votes, setting the stage for a new government. A record-breaking 83.5% voter turnout, the highest since Germany’s reunification in 1990, demonstrated strong public engagement in this snap election held on February 23.

Below is an in-depth breakdown of the election results, key party performances, parliamentary seat distribution, potential coalitions, and demographic voting patterns.

Who Won Germany’s 2025 Election?

With the vote count completed, the CDU/CSU has officially won the election. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured second place, surpassing expectations and reshaping the country’s political landscape. The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz, suffered a historic defeat, recording its lowest vote share in a federal election.

Which Parties Gained and Lost the Most Votes?

One of the biggest stories of this election is the significant surge in support for the AfD, which nearly doubled its vote share compared to previous elections. The right-wing party capitalized on growing dissatisfaction with the political establishment, drawing voters from multiple parties, particularly the SPD.

In contrast, the SPD suffered the most significant decline, registering its worst electoral performance. The party lost millions of votes, reflecting growing discontent with its leadership and policies. Additionally, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which had been part of the previous ruling coalition, also experienced heavy losses. Its failure to cross the 5% electoral threshold means it will not be represented in the Bundestag.

How Are Seats Distributed in the Bundestag?

Germany’s parliamentary system allows voters to cast two votes: one for a direct candidate in their constituency and another for a party’s state list. The Bundestag consists of 630 seats, and a party must secure at least 5% of the votes to enter parliament unless it wins at least three constituency seats, in which case it is granted proportional representation regardless of vote share.

The CDU/CSU, despite being the largest party, does not have an outright majority, which means a coalition government must be formed.

What Are the Possible Coalition Scenarios?

With 208 seats, the CDU/CSU falls short of the 316 seats required for a majority. Since the party has ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, it must seek partnerships with other political groups. The most viable options include:

1. A Grand Coalition with the SPD: Despite its losses, the SPD still holds a significant number of seats, making a coalition with the CDU/CSU a potential outcome. However, internal resistance within both parties could make this scenario challenging.
2. A Three-Way Coalition with the Greens: If the CDU/CSU partners with the Greens and another smaller party, it could achieve a majority. The Greens’ policy positions, however, may create hurdles in negotiations.

Discussions in the coming weeks will determine which parties align to form the next government.

Voter Migration: How Did Voters Switch Allegiances?

This election witnessed significant voter movement across party lines. The CDU/CSU gained roughly 2 million votes from former SPD supporters, signaling a shift away from center-left policies. Additionally, the Left Party attracted voters from both the SPD and the Greens, picking up approximately 1.3 million votes in total.

How Did Age Influence Voting Patterns?

Age demographics played a crucial role in shaping election results. Younger voters (aged 18-24) showed stronger support for parties on the political extremes, with many backing the AfD and the Left Party. Meanwhile, traditional parties such as the CDU and SPD performed poorly among younger voters.

Conversely, older voters (aged 60 and above) favored the CDU/CSU and SPD, demonstrating a preference for established political forces.

How Did Gender Affect Voting Preferences?

Men were more likely to vote for right-leaning parties, including the CDU and the AfD, while women showed stronger support for center-left and progressive parties like the SPD, Greens, and the Left Party.

A notable gender gap was observed in AfD support, with men being 7% more likely to vote for the party than women. For other parties, gender differences were within 2-3%.

How Did Education Level Impact Voting Choices?

Educational background also played a role in voter preferences. Those without higher education were more inclined to support conservative parties, with the CDU and AfD being the most popular among this group. The AfD, in particular, found significant backing among voters with lower educational qualifications.

On the other hand, voters with university degrees were twice as likely to support the Greens or the Left Party, favoring progressive policies on climate change, social justice, and economic reform.

Regional Differences in Voting Patterns

Voting behavior varied significantly across Germany’s regions. The AfD made its strongest gains in the eastern states, where it emerged as the dominant force. In Brandenburg, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia, and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the far-right party secured over 30% of the second vote.

In Thuringia, where key AfD figures hold influence, the party received more than 38% of the vote—nearly double that of the CDU. The exception in eastern Germany was Berlin, where the Left Party won the largest share of votes.

Meanwhile, in western and southern Germany, the CDU and CSU retained their stronghold. In Bavaria, the CSU won all 47 constituencies, reinforcing its dominance in the region. The SPD performed best in northern and western regions, where its traditional labor-focused policies continue to resonate with voters.

For the first time, the AfD managed to win the majority of second votes in western constituencies such as Gelsenkirchen and Kaiserslautern. However, SPD candidates still won the direct constituency votes in these areas.

What’s Next for Germany’s Government?

The election has reshaped Germany’s political landscape, with conservatives reclaiming leadership and the far-right achieving unprecedented success. Coalition negotiations will determine the structure of the next government, with significant implications for economic policy, social programs, and Germany’s role in international affairs.

The CDU/CSU’s ability to form a stable coalition will be crucial in navigating challenges such as economic stagnation, housing shortages, and geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, the SPD faces internal scrutiny after its poor performance, while the AfD’s rise continues to stir debate about the direction of German politics.

As discussions progress in the coming weeks, Germany’s political future remains uncertain, with coalition talks set to shape the country’s leadership and policy direction for years to come.