TOKYO, July 8 – When Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba met U.S. President Donald Trump back in February, he carried with him an ambitious promise—a bold pledge to invest $1 trillion into the American economy. This move was designed to defuse Trump’s long-standing grievances over trade imbalances with Japan and to set the stage for smooth negotiations on a bilateral trade deal.
Initially, the approach seemed successful. Trump lauded the announcement and expressed confidence in the two nations’ rapport, stating he foresaw “no problem whatsoever” in sealing a deal. Yet, as months passed, the optimism began to fade. Behind the scenes, Japanese negotiators followed the investment-first strategy, deliberately avoiding contentious topics like agriculture to prevent domestic political fallout ahead of the July 20 upper house elections.
Despite the early praise, the plan has now collapsed under mounting pressure, leaving Tokyo scrambling. In a surprising shift, Trump took to his social media platform to call Japan “spoiled,” voicing frustration over the country’s unwillingness to purchase American rice. That criticism was quickly followed by Washington’s announcement that it would slap a 25% tariff on Japanese imports starting August 1.
Early Efforts, Growing Frustrations
After Trump announced broad new tariffs in April, Japan moved quickly to engage. Prime Minister Ishiba appointed Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, a trusted confidant, to head the talks in Washington. Over the course of seven trips between April and June, Akazawa and his team laid out plans to invest heavily in U.S. industries like steel and energy, hoping to placate Trump while keeping Japan’s own domestic sensitivities, especially in agriculture, off the table.
Their goal was two-fold: gain relief for Japan’s automotive sector, which supports about one in ten workers and makes up around 20% of its exports, and avoid slashing protective tariffs on imports like rice, a hot-button issue for Japanese farmers and rural voters.
In his public remarks, Akazawa repeatedly said that both sides were working toward reaching a deal before Ishiba and Trump’s second meeting, which was scheduled on the sidelines of the G7 summit held in Kananaskis, in the Canadian Rockies, from June 15 to 17.
However, as that meeting approached, cracks began to show. shortly before he left for Washington, Akazawa acknowledged the uncertainty clouding the negotiations, telling reporters, “It feels like we’re still in a dense fog.”
At the summit, things didn’t go as planned. According to a source with direct knowledge of the encounter, Trump appeared disengaged and tired. The much-anticipated trade talks were largely deferred to their respective teams. Speaking to reporters afterward, Ishiba said the meeting revealed clear gaps in how both sides viewed the situation, instead of bringing them closer to an agreement.
Backlash and Political Fallout
Two weeks later, Trump aired his grievances on social media, singling out Japan’s rice import policies. “Just to show how some countries have taken the U.S. for granted—though I respect Japan—they refuse to buy our rice even while facing a major shortage,” he wrote.
The comment sparked immediate concern among Japanese officials. Several now believe Tokyo may have no choice but to reconsider its position on agricultural imports, especially if it wishes to deescalate tensions and avoid further economic fallout.
Still, not all within Ishiba’s administration agree. Akazawa remains firm that a deal must involve meaningful concessions from the United States as well, especially regarding auto tariffs. He believes Japan’s automotive industry cannot withstand further pressure and that fair trade requires compromise on both sides.
The domestic reaction to Trump’s tariff announcement has been critical. For many Japanese citizens, it raises serious questions about the value of the months-long negotiations and the effectiveness of Ishiba’s strategy.
“Given the tariffs number that we got, frankly it makes me wonder what all the past negotiations were for,” said Hidetoshi Inada, a 64-year-old Tokyo office worker, while waiting for his train at Shimbashi Station. “The outcome is everything,” he added, voicing a sentiment that is quickly gaining traction among voters.
Facing an uphill battle, Ishiba must now reassure a skeptical public while navigating a precarious diplomatic path with Washington. His government has stated its intention to continue pursuing a trade agreement that benefits both countries and protects Japan’s national interests.