Mozambique is preparing for its highly anticipated presidential and legislative elections on October 9, 2024. The ruling Frelimo party, in power for nearly five decades, is widely expected to retain its dominance, with candidate Daniel Chapo emerging as the favorite to succeed outgoing President Filipe Nyusi. As the country approaches the polls, several critical issues loom large, shaping the landscape of this election.
Islamist Insurgency
One of the most pressing challenges facing Mozambique is the ongoing Islamist insurgency in the northern region of Cabo Delgado. This conflict, which began in 2017, has been spearheaded by militants linked to the Islamic State. Over the years, the insurgency has devastated the region, resulting in thousands of civilian deaths and displacing hundreds of thousands of people from their homes. Entire communities have been destroyed, with livelihoods wiped out, leaving many families in dire conditions.
Cabo Delgado is home to some of the world’s largest untapped natural gas reserves. The insurgency has severely impacted Mozambique’s aspirations to become a global leader in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, forcing international investors to halt or delay key projects. Despite military intervention by regional forces and support from countries such as Rwanda, the conflict remains unresolved, with a resurgence of violent attacks in 2024 further complicating matters.
Stalled Gas Projects
Prior to the insurgency, Mozambique’s gas sector was brimming with promise, attracting substantial foreign investments. With projects valued at more than $50 billion, the country was poised to transform into a major LNG exporter. However, ongoing violence in Cabo Delgado has derailed these ambitions.
In 2021, TotalEnergies, a French energy giant, suspended operations on its $20 billion LNG project following an insurgent attack on the town of Palma, located near the project’s key logistics hub. This halt in operations marked a major setback for Mozambique’s economy. Recently, TotalEnergies hinted at the possibility of resuming work after the upcoming elections, but this is contingent on the security situation in Cabo Delgado improving.
Similarly, an LNG project led by Exxon Mobil and its partner Eni has also been delayed. Exxon has stated that a final investment decision regarding its involvement will likely be made by 2025. These delays have significantly slowed Mozambique’s economic progress, making the elections crucial for the future of these energy projects.
Debt Scandal and Financial Crisis
The shadow of Mozambique’s “tuna bond” scandal continues to hang over the country’s financial system. This multi-billion-dollar corruption case, involving over $1.5 billion in loans intended for state-run companies to purchase fishing fleets, resulted in massive mismanagement of funds. The scandal, involving international financial institutions and Mozambican officials, not only caused widespread outrage but also pushed the country into a financial crisis.
As a result of the corruption, major donors, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), suspended aid, triggering a currency collapse and leading to a default on Mozambique’s debt. The scandal has tarnished the image of the Frelimo party, with high-ranking officials facing legal proceedings. Although an out-of-court settlement was reached with some parties involved, Mozambique’s economic recovery remains slow and fragile.
Climate Vulnerability
Mozambique is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to extreme weather events. Its location on the southeastern coast of Africa makes it particularly susceptible to cyclones, floods, and droughts. The impact of climate change has further intensified the frequency and severity of these disasters.
In 2023, Mozambique was hit by a devastating drought caused by the El Niño phenomenon. The drought wreaked havoc on agricultural production, particularly in central and southern regions, where around 1.8 million people were left struggling to survive. Alongside this, cyclones regularly devastate the country. One of the most catastrophic was Cyclone Freddy, which struck in 2023, causing widespread destruction across Mozambique, Malawi, and Madagascar, killing over 1,000 people and displacing many more.
These climate shocks not only exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Mozambique but also strain the government’s resources and impede efforts to stabilize the economy. As the country heads to the polls, its leadership will need to address the urgent need for climate resilience and disaster preparedness.
Peace Agreement and Political Stability
Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1975, Mozambique has been governed by the Frelimo party. However, the country’s history has been marred by civil war and political unrest. After independence, Mozambique endured a 16-year civil conflict between Frelimo and the opposition Renamo party, leaving approximately one million people dead. A peace agreement signed in 1992 ended much of the bloodshed, though violence has occasionally flared up around election periods.
In an attempt to ensure lasting peace, Frelimo and Renamo signed the Maputo Accord for Peace and National Reconciliation in 2019, shortly before that year’s election. This agreement aimed to bring an end to sporadic violence and facilitate the reintegration of former Renamo combatants into Mozambican society. Since the accord was signed, more than 5,000 former fighters have surrendered their arms.
The upcoming elections will test the strength of this peace agreement. While the situation remains relatively calm, concerns persist that political tensions could escalate into violence once again, especially given the deep-seated rivalry between Frelimo and Renamo.
Final Thoughts
As Mozambique approaches its October 9 elections, the country stands at a critical juncture. From an Islamist insurgency disrupting the gas sector to the ongoing effects of a massive financial scandal and vulnerability to climate disasters, the challenges are numerous. The elections will determine not only the country’s political future but also its capacity to overcome these complex issues. Whether Mozambique can chart a course toward stability and development remains to be seen, but the nation’s future depends heavily on the decisions made in this decisive election.