As the U.S. heads toward a pivotal election, experts warn that early vote counts in battleground states may not accurately predict the outcomes for candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. This uncertainty arises from the diverse vote counting regulations across several key states, which could lead to misleading early indicators.
In the 2020 election, many states experienced a “red mirage,” where Trump initially led on election night. However, as mail-in ballots—favored more by Democratic voters—were counted, Biden eventually took the lead, resulting in widespread claims of election fraud from Trump, despite these outcomes being anticipated by analysts. Similar scenarios could unfold again, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where early counts may not reflect the final results.
Conversely, a “blue mirage” may occur, showing a strong early lead for Harris in states like North Carolina and Georgia, only for the trend to shift as more Republican votes are counted later. Trump’s campaign has indicated he plans to declare victory upon reaching the crucial 270 Electoral College votes, which could happen prematurely given the ongoing vote counts.
Key States and Their Voting Dynamics
The dynamics of early voting and mail-in ballots vary significantly across battleground states, making it essential for voters to understand what to expect on Election Day and in the days that follow.
Pennsylvania
In 2020, Pennsylvania took four days post-election to declare a winner due to a backlog of mail-in ballots. This year, the state still prohibits election workers from processing mail ballots before 7 a.m. on Election Day, likely resulting in early counts favoring Trump. However, as mail ballots are tallied, which predominantly come from Democratic voters, his lead may diminish. A new law mandates counties to disclose the number of remaining mail ballots by midnight on election night to mitigate conspiracy theories.
Wisconsin
Similar to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin allows mail ballots to be processed only on Election Day, leading to potential delays in reporting. Large cities, such as Milwaukee, transport mail ballots to central processing locations, which can result in substantial batches of votes being reported simultaneously. In 2020, Trump used the sudden spike in votes favoring Biden to claim fraud, despite this being an expected occurrence. A comparable pattern is likely in this election.
Georgia
Georgia has seen a surge in early in-person voting, with expectations that 65% to 70% of ballots will be cast before Election Day. Although absentee ballots represent a smaller portion of the vote, they can be processed in advance, but counting must wait until polls close. All votes must be reported by 8 p.m. on election night, with officials aiming to finalize results by midnight. Additionally, overseas and military ballots postmarked by November 5 will be counted up to three days after the election, which could further delay final results in a tight race.
Arizona
Voting by mail is highly popular in Arizona, with nearly 90% of voters opting for early ballots in 2020. Officials can begin processing mail ballots upon receipt, but results are withheld until after polls close. A significant number of ballots may be dropped off on Election Day, which can take days to count. Initial results may favor Harris, but as Election Day votes are tallied, a shift toward Trump could occur, followed by a potential resurgence for Harris as late mail ballots are processed.
Michigan
Michigan has implemented early in-person voting for the first time since the 2020 election and allows larger jurisdictions to begin processing mail ballots eight days prior. This change aims to facilitate faster reporting than in 2020 when mail ballots caused delays. The state could again see a “red mirage” on election night as early counts favor Trump, only for Biden to take the lead later when mail ballots are tallied.
North Carolina
In North Carolina, election officials can process mail ballots ahead of Election Day, with early counts likely showing Harris in the lead. However, Trump may close the gap as Election Day votes are reported throughout the evening. Given the close polling, the outcome could remain uncertain for days after the election, especially since absentee ballots that arrive on November 5 will be counted during a 10-day canvassing period.
Nevada
In Nevada, changes implemented since 2020 are expected to speed up vote counting. Counties can begin processing mail ballots weeks in advance, and early in-person votes can be tabulated starting at 8 a.m. on Election Day. However, mail voting remains popular, and late-arriving ballots postmarked by November 5 will be counted if received within four days. These late ballots tend to favor Democrats, which could result in a late shift toward Harris.
Conclusion
As Election Day approaches, it’s crucial for voters and observers to understand the complexities of vote counting and the implications of early results. The patterns observed in previous elections highlight the need for patience and vigilance, as initial counts may not provide a clear picture of the election outcome. With the potential for shifts in results as mail-in ballots are counted, staying informed will be key to understanding the unfolding electoral landscape.